Are the Jets Smart to Be Paying for Cole Perfetti's Future?
One interesting thing about NHL contracts is that teams rarely pay only for what a player has already done. Every contract is a prediction about the future. The question is how much of that prediction is based on recent results and how much is based on what a team believes the player can become.
That is especially true for Cole Perfetti and the Winnipeg Jets. The five-year contract is not simply a reward for what Perfetti accomplished last season. It is a statement that the organization believes the best version of the player is still ahead of him.
NHL contracts aren’t for what the player has done; they’re for what the team thinks is coming.
One of the mistakes hockey fans sometimes make is assuming every contract is a reward for what a player just accomplished. Sometimes it is. More often, though, a contract is a prediction. That's what makes the Jets' five-year commitment to Perfetti interesting.
On the surface, the numbers don't immediately justify the deal. Perfetti finished last season with 12 goals and 32 points in 68 games, a noticeable drop from the 50 points he produced the year before. If the Jets were evaluating only last season, a shorter bridge contract might have seemed like the safer choice. Instead, they did the opposite.
Related: What Six Goals Don't Tell You About the Jets' Viggo Bjorck.
Perfetti’s contract is a significant investment in the team’s future.
By signing Perfetti to a five-year deal, Winnipeg made it clear they weren't paying for 2025-26. They were investing in what they believe he'll become over the next five seasons. That says something about how the Jets evaluate young players.
Player development is rarely a straight line. Fans often expect a 24-year-old to improve every season, but the NHL doesn't work that way. Ice time changes. Linemates change. Confidence comes and goes. Sometimes a player takes a step backward before taking two steps forward.
The Jets believe Perfetti's best hockey is still ahead of him. The contract also avoids another problem. If Winnipeg had signed him to a one- or two-year bridge deal and he rebounded with another 50- or 60-point season, the price of his next contract would almost certainly have been much higher. By committing now, the Jets are betting that today's price will look like a bargain later.
Sure, there’s a risk for the Jets, but it’s worth it in Perfetti’s case.
Of course, there's risk. If Perfetti settles in as a 30-point player, five years may look like too much term. But organizations that draft and develop well are usually willing to live with that risk. They know young players don't always develop on a schedule.
That's why this contract isn't really about last season at all. It's about the Jets saying they still believe the player who scored 50 points is in there somewhere—and they're willing to put five years behind that belief.