Can Mike Babcock Resist Tinkering With a Successful Oilers'

Kasperi Kapanen's regular-season numbers last year weren't spectacular. He had eight goals and 17 points in 41 games for Edmonton. But then the playoffs arrived, and suddenly he looked like a different player. He scored four goals and six points in six playoff games and averaged almost 18 minutes a night. More importantly, Edmonton trusted him more as the series went along.

Has Kapanen Earned a Spot in the Oilers’ Top Six?

Players sometimes need opportunity, but they also need to know where they stand. Kapanen now appears to have something he hasn't always had in Edmonton: a pretty good argument that he belongs beside Leon Draisaitl and Vasily Podkolzin. And the numbers say the line worked.

Over the past two regular seasons, Kapanen, Draisaitl and Podkolzin have outscored opponents 15-6 at five-on-five. They controlled more than 54 percent of the expected goals, and that number jumped to more than 61 percent in the playoffs.

Those aren't perfect numbers. There is always some luck involved. But they aren't the kind of numbers you simply ignore because you have another player you would like to try.

Kapanen Doesn't Need to Be the Star.

This is what I find most interesting about Kapanen's fit. He doesn't have to be the guy carrying the line. Draisaitl can control the puck and dictate the flow of the offence. Podkolzin can go get the puck and make life difficult for defenders. Kapanen can do what he does best: use his speed, find open space and get himself into scoring areas.

That's a pretty good division of labour. And maybe that's why 20 goals isn't quite as unlikely as it sounds. Kapanen doesn't need to suddenly become a 30-goal scorer. He needs to stay healthy, stay in the lineup and keep playing with players who make his particular skills useful. That's where Mike Babcock comes in.

The Real Question Is Whether Babcock Can Resist Tinkering.

Edmonton has other options. Isaac Howard could push for a bigger role. Matt Savoie needs opportunities. And if Babcock wants to load up a line, putting Connor McDavid and Draisaitl together is always sitting there. That's the temptation.

But sometimes coaches can make a lineup more complicated than it needs to be. If Kapanen and Draisaitl are working, maybe the best decision is simply to let them work. Kapanen doesn't need to win his job every week. He needs to keep it.

And if Kapanen gets 70-plus games beside Draisaitl and Podkolzin, stays reasonably healthy and continues to play the way he did in the playoffs, 20 goals suddenly doesn't look like such a wild prediction.

Maybe the real gamble isn't predicting Kapanen will score 20. Maybe it's predicting the Oilers will leave him alone long enough to find out.