Can the Maple Leafs Still Fall Into the Bottom Five and Keep the No. 5 Pick?
So, can the Toronto Maple Leafs still do what was unthinkable before the season started? That is, can they be one of the bottom five teams in the entire NHL? The short answer — yes, it’s possible. But it’s a long shot.
The Maple Leafs are currently about three points clear, and that overtime loss to Los Angeles already makes things trickier than they should be. For Toronto to slip into the bottom five, they’d need a mix of poor results down the stretch plus help from teams like Seattle and the New York Rangers. And even then, tiebreakers could end up working against them.
Why It Can Happen:
The Maple Leafs would need to lose enough games in regulation to drop points quickly. The problem for them is that even picking up the occasional overtime loss or single point can slow any slide. That OT loss to the Kings is a good example of how even “not losing in regulation” still hurts the cause.
Seattle’s schedule is awkward: Vegas twice, Colorado, Calgary, and Los Angeles. If the Kraken manage to steal a win from Calgary and pick up a couple of overtime losses elsewhere, they could realistically put together a 3–6 point swing. They’re inconsistent enough that a couple of surprise results isn’t out of the question.
The Rangers are the longer shot, but not completely out of it. If they can steal a result against Florida and grab a point or two against Dallas or Tampa, they could make things interesting. The problem is their schedule is tough, so they need things to break just right.
Tiebreakers also matter a lot here. The Maple Leafs reportedly have fewer regulation wins than Seattle or New York, so if things end in a tie on points, Toronto could lose the edge. That’s what makes every single point, including that OT loss to the Kings, feel more significant in hindsight.
Why It’s Unlikely:
The biggest reason this probably doesn’t happen is simple: Toronto is still trying to win games. That alone lowers the odds of any kind of slide. Even picking up a couple of points down the stretch makes it harder for anyone to catch them.
On the other side, both Seattle and the Rangers would need multiple things to break their way. Seattle would need an upset or two plus some overtime luck, while the Rangers would need a small run against very tough opponents. Neither scenario is impossible, but both require a lot of help.
There’s also the wildcard factor: other bubble teams, injuries, and resting stars (especially for teams like Colorado or Tampa) could completely change how games play out in the final stretch.
Rough Maple Leafs Odds and Final Take
Ballpark probability? Around 10–20% that Toronto finishes in the bottom five and keeps the No. 5 pick. If the Maple Leafs drop multiple regulation games and Seattle strings together a couple of favourable results, you can push that toward the higher end. If Toronto keeps grinding out even a few points, it likely drops into single digits fast.
The Bottom Line for the Maple Leafs:
It’s not dead, but it’s far from likely. The Maple Leafs would need a combination of their own poor results and a bit of chaos from Seattle and the Rangers — plus some help from tiebreakers. If you’re rooting for the pick, you’re basically hoping for a small Leafs stumble and a couple of surprise results elsewhere.