Ex-Canuck Kuzmenko: Why a 25-Point Season Gets $5 Million
Andrei Kuzmenko landing in Pittsburgh on a one-year, $5 million deal is the kind of move that makes you pause and wonder if the market is starting to price reputation more than production. On the surface, the contract numbers feel high. Last season with the Los Angeles Kings, Kuzmenko put up 13 goals and 25 points in 52 games. That’s not $5 million production in a vacuum, even if you factor in his eight power-play goals and flashes of high-end skill.
Related: The Oleksiak Move Was About Stabilizing the Canucks Defence.
Why would Kyle Dubas and the Penguins pay so much for Kuzmenko?
So why the price tag? The simple answer is that the Penguins aren’t paying for last year—they’re paying for the idea of Kuzmenko in the right situation. Kyle Dubas has consistently leaned into these short-term, high-variance bets on skilled forwards, especially ones who can either (a) rebound in a bigger role or (b) become deadline currency. In a thin free-agent market, teams don’t buy “steady production” anymore; they buy probability curves. Kuzmenko’s curve still has a believable spike at the top end, even if the floor is what we saw last year.
There’s also a structural factor here that drives the number up: power-play specialists are expensive insurance. Eight power-play goals in limited usage signals a skill set that doesn’t need heavy five-on-five deployment to justify itself. For a Penguins team trying to squeeze one more competitive window out of Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin’s remaining years, that specific tool has real internal value. You’re not just paying for points—you’re paying for situational leverage.
Kuzmenko has high upside and low risk.
But the secondary analysis is more interesting, and maybe more critical. Deals like this often include a “liquidity tax.” Pittsburgh isn’t just buying Kuzmenko’s production; they’re buying optionality. A one-year term means zero long-term risk, but it also means the cap hit is inflated to compensate for that flexibility. In a more stable, multi-year projection, Kuzmenko probably lives closer to the $2.5–3.5 million range. The extra dollars are essentially the cost of keeping the exit door wide open.
That’s the Dubas pattern in miniature: accept an overpay on paper, if it preserves maneuverability later. If Kuzmenko pops, he becomes a deadline asset or a playoff weapon. If he doesn’t, the contract disappears without consequence. Either way, the Penguins are betting that volatility itself has value—and in today’s NHL market, that’s increasingly becoming a tradable asset.