How Far Can the Maple Leafs Really Go This Season?
If you’ve been scrolling MoneyPuck lately, you might be surprised at how bad they think the Toronto Maple Leafs really are. They have a 22.4% chance of making the playoffs. Few NHL teams are worse. Yes, there are bright spots. Matthew Knies is almost a point-per-game, and Bobby McMann is on pace to top 20 goals. Matias Maccelli’s points are finally coming, and that’s great. Typically, Max Domi has pumped up his game during the second half of the season.
However, if only some of these players could have had better starts. A bit too little and too late.
The Maple Leafs' Injuries Aren’t Helping the Team Win
Furthermore, there are injuries. William Nylander will miss another game tonight. Christopher Tanev’s potential groin injury is expected to keep him out for months. This isn’t a hiccup. It’s a structural problem. Could it be the kind of hockey the team plays? Or is it just bad luck?
So what do you do? The one thing the team needs to avoid is believing that a trade-deadline addition will make a difference. Keep Easton Cowan and Ben Danford at all costs. Any deadline trade for a middle-six forward or defenceman looks extremely iffy right now. There should be no moving of the 2028 first-round pick in some desperate bid for a wildcard spot.
Even if you get there, this team is likely to be ousted by the Tampa Bay Lightning again in Round One. That’s not a plan; it's doubling down on not having a plan.
What Does the Maple Leafs’ Midseason Mirror Tell Them to Do or Not Do?
Here’s where the Maple Leafs need to slow themselves down, not speed up. This isn’t the moment for panic trades, headline-grabbing swings, or trying to “win” the deadline. It’s the moment to sit with what this team actually is.
What parts of the DNA are working? Which players fit the way they want to play, and which ones don’t? Some contracts and players will need to move on this summer. Others are worth keeping even if the season around them feels messy.
But burning prospects, rushing timelines, or pretending one move fixes years of mixed signals would only repeat the same mistakes. If this season teaches anything, it’s that building a team isn’t about reacting — it’s about choosing, patiently and clearly, who you want to be next.