Insider Says Maple Leafs Won’t Make the Playoffs

So here’s one for the morning coffee crowd. Frank Seravalli was on The FAN the other day talking about how many Canadian teams will make the playoffs. Nothing unusual — it’s that time of year when everyone’s sorting teams into buckets: contenders, pretenders, and the “well, maybe if everything breaks right” group.

But then he dropped a comment that made me stop mid-sip: He’s got the Toronto Maple Leafs out of the postseason.

Now, Seravalli isn’t a shock-jock. He doesn’t throw grenades around to hear them go off. Listening closely to how he built the argument, whether you agree or not, you can see how he gets there.

Who He Has In — Seravalli’s Four Canadian Picks

Seravalli named the four teams he believes will make the playoffs. These are the ones he’s riding with:

First, the Edmonton Oilers. He thinks they’ve finally “figured it out.” (We’ve heard that before, but to be fair, they do look more stable.) Better goaltending, some structure creeping back into their game, and Connor McDavid refusing to let the season slide into the ditch.

Second, the Winnipeg Jets. This one surprised me a bit because the Jets have been wobbling, but Frank’s view is simple: once Connor Hellebuyck returns, order returns. He’s also convinced the Jets’ depth scoring can’t stay frozen forever. Fair enough — that slump has to thaw at some point.

Third, the Ottawa Senators. It’s hard to disagree. He’s right that they’ve been the most consistent Canadian team this season. Not flashy, not chaotic, just solid. The young core is doing what young cores are supposed to do — get a little better every week.

Fourth, and finally, the Montreal Canadiens. Maybe a bit of a stretch here because they’re so young and a bit up and down. The Canadiens have also had injuries everywhere — up front, on D, and certainly in net. Seravalli’s take is that every position has been hit hard, yet they’re still hanging around. He sees skill and “a bit of juice,” as he put it, to get them over the line.

So those are his four. And when you do the simple math… well, somebody has to fall out.

Why Seravalli Has the Maple Leafs Missing

He didn’t go into a 10-minute rant or stack spreadsheets on the table. It was more of a shrug, but a meaningful one: “I’ve got the Leafs out.” His reasoning danced around two ideas that keep following the Maple Leafs around like bad weather. He believes they have a “crisis of confidence” in the net.

That was the phrasing. And it’s not unfair (in a way). When the Maple Leafs are healthy in the crease, there’s no crisis of anything. Yet, because of injuries, there hasn’t been a stretch this season where goaltending felt settled. It’s always been patchwork.

Second, Seravalli noted that there were too many Maple Leafs injuries up front. Toronto’s forward group has been nicked up, patched together, and missing the timing they need. You can only shuffle so much before the chemistry drips away.

His almost matter-of-fact analysis is that the Maple Leafs’ margin for error has quietly thinned, and other Canadian teams have passed them simply by being steadier.

Is Seravalli Right About the Maple Leafs?

I’m not here planting a flag either way. But it is something when a plugged-in insider looks at the entire Canadian field and sees the Maple Leafs on the wrong side of the line.

Maybe he’s too early. Perhaps he’s off. Or maybe he’s saying out loud something the rest of us have been circling quietly: this Maple Leafs season feels a little “under the weather.”

We’ll see. Hockey has a way of flipping these things in two weeks.