Jacob Fowler's Goalie's Problem Is Being Ready Before

There is a funny thing about being a young goalie in the NHL. You can be good enough to play and still not have anywhere to play. That may be the situation Jacob Fowler finds himself in with the Montreal Canadiens.

The Athletic’s ranking of the NHL's top Calder Trophy candidates has Fowler among the players worth watching, and it's easy to understand why. He has the talent, the numbers and now some professional experience to back it up. He posted a .916 save percentage in the AHL last season and then went into the NHL and put up a .908 save percentage in 17 games.

Those aren't the numbers of somebody who simply survived his first taste of the NHL. According to advanced analytics, Fowler also saved 9.3 goals above expected during those 17 games. In other words, he wasn't just benefiting from the team in front of him. He was making saves that mattered.

Here’s where things get interesting for Fowler and the Canadiens.

The Canadiens may have a very good young goalie on their hands, but they also have Jakub Dobeš. Dobeš was outstanding in the second half of last season and in the playoffs, which makes Dobeš the obvious No. 1 goalie heading into this season. Then there's Sam Montembeault, who is still around unless Montreal moves him before the season begins.

So where does Fowler fit? That's the part of this story that I find more interesting than the Calder Trophy discussion. There is a very real possibility that Fowler may already be better than Montembeault right now and still begin the season in Laval. That sounds strange, but it might actually make sense.

Goalies are different from most young players. A 21-year-old forward can sit in the NHL lineup, play 12 or 14 minutes and learn by being around NHL players. A young goalie can spend an awful lot of time watching somebody else play. That's not necessarily development.

What choice might be best for Fowler’s development?

If Fowler is going to spend most of a season sitting on an NHL bench, there is a pretty good argument for sending him to Laval and letting him play 50 or 60 games instead. That's the uncomfortable part. Sometimes the best player isn't necessarily the player who should play the most right now.

Fowler may eventually force Montreal's hand. If he continues to stop pucks at this rate, there will come a point when keeping him in the AHL starts to look less like development and more like delaying the inevitable. But the Canadiens don't have to rush it.

They have Dobeš. They have an NHL-calibre option in Montembeault. And they have something every organization would love to have: a young goalie knocking on the door.

For young goalies, patience may be the most important part of development.

The danger is that we see a .908 save percentage and 9.3 goals saved above expected in 17 NHL games and immediately decide the kid has arrived. Maybe he has. But 17 games is still 17 games. The really encouraging part isn't that Fowler has already proven everything. It's that he has given Montreal enough evidence to believe there may be something special here.

Now comes the hard part. Montreal has to figure out whether Fowler needs more time to develop—or whether the kid is already telling them he's ready. And sometimes, with goalies, that's a decision you don't really get to make.

Eventually, the goalie makes it for you.