Leon Draisaitl Shows That Even Good Scouting Misses

One interesting thing about looking back at old draft projections is that scouts are often much closer to being right than we give them credit for. The scouting report on Leon Draisaitl, taken third overall by the Edmonton Oilers, actually described a very good player. Elite vision. Excellent puck protection. The ability to slow the game down, create time and make the players around him better.

The scouts saw Leon Draisaitl. What they didn't see was just how far Leon Draisaitl could take those things.

The scouting report underestimated what Draisaitl would become.

That might be the most interesting part of his development. The projection suggested a gifted playmaking centre who might occasionally frustrate people because he didn't shoot enough and wasn't an especially graceful skater. That sounds almost quaint now. Draisaitl didn't simply become a better version of the player Edmonton drafted. Somewhere along the way, he added one of the most dangerous shooting abilities in hockey.

And that changed everything. A player with elite vision is difficult enough to defend. Add elite puck protection and the ability to find teammates in impossible places, and the problem gets even bigger. But when that same player can score from the slot, the circle or seemingly any other uncomfortable place on the ice, defenders have a much bigger problem.

Draisaitl’s shot makes him especially dangerous.

You can't simply take away the pass because he'll shoot. You can't overplay the shot because he'll find someone else. And because he is so strong on the puck, getting it away from him isn't particularly easy either.

That's the part scouts can't always project. They can identify tools. They can compare players. They can describe what a young player already does well. What is much harder is predicting which strengths will remain strengths and which will become almost absurd.

Draisaitl is a good example of that. The Oilers drafted a potential first-line playmaking centre. That was a pretty optimistic projection. They ended up with one of the most complete offensive weapons of his generation.

Draisaitl’s career shows how important player development can be.

It also says something about player development. Draisaitl's skating never suddenly became pretty. His defensive game never became the defining part of his reputation. The weaknesses identified before the draft didn't disappear.

They just became less important because his strengths became overwhelming. Sometimes a player doesn't need to fix everything scouts questioned about him. Sometimes he simply needs to become so exceptionally good at what he already does best that the weaknesses become part of the bargain. Leon Draisaitl may be one of the best examples of that in the modern NHL.