Maple Leafs’ Draft Lottery Jitters: Time to Worry or Not?
The Toronto Maple Leafs are holding their first-rounder after a brutal 2025-26. Under the current lottery rules, there’s a real chance Toronto keeps the fifth pick. But, there’s also a slim chance they leap to the top, and an almost equally real chance they lose it entirely to a team below them. Some of those outcomes suck, just in different ways.
What are the odds for the Maple Leafs?
What’s the real talk on the odds? In an interesting post on The Hockey Writers, Peter Baracchini discussed how the new two-lottery system makes movement at the very top more likely, but it also means middle picks get jittery. Historically, a team sitting fifth has moved up a few times. For example, Chicago in ’07 (Kane), New Jersey in ’17 (Hischier), and again in ’22. So miracles happen. Baracchini also reported that the Maple Leafs have roughly a 42% chance to keep or move up, and about a 44% shot to fall out and lose the pick. Those numbers are basically coin-flip territory, which is maddening when the pick could land with Boston if the wrong team bounces up.
The fact is that the real lottery will do what the lottery does: humiliate some and bless others.
The Maple Leafs might have avoided all this drama.
Why this whole thing feels extra salty for Maple Leafs fans is simple: this didn’t have to be such a cliffhanger. Protection on the pick is top-10, not top-5, which was a gamble that now looks worse given how badly the team regressed. If Toronto had pocketed a slightly tighter protection clause, fans wouldn’t be having this existential debate about losing a fifth overall to a rival. Hindsight is crude, but fair.
If Toronto keeps the pick, it’s a huge reset chance. The team might target a high-end forward like Gavin McKenna or Ivar Stenberg, or a blue-chip defender like Chase Reid or Keaton Verhoeff. If they lose it, it’s a bruise they’ll have to explain for years. Either way, the new GM will have to make a clear choice: use the pick as a building block, trade it for immediate help, or hang onto it and commit to a longer rebuild.
The draft lottery is nothing more than a roll of the dice. Still, it has huge consequences.
What should Toronto fans do? They should prepare for some drama. The lottery’s a roll of the dice — and Maple Leafs fans know all about gambling with dreams.