Should the Canucks Wait and See What They Have with Öhgren?

There is a funny thing about young hockey players. Everybody wants to know exactly what they are before giving them a big contract. Makes sense, right?

You watch them for another year. You see whether the scoring continues. You find out whether they can handle tougher minutes. Then, once you have enough evidence, you make the decision. The problem is that everybody else has been watching too.

Are NHL teams starting to bet on young players earlier?

That's the little game NHL teams are playing with young players. If Liam Öhgren turns into a 25-goal, 50-point winger this season, the Vancouver Canucks will know exactly what they have. Unfortunately, Öhgren's agent will know it too. And so will every other general manager in the league.

That's why I find the idea of signing Öhgren now so interesting. The Canucks just made the big bet on Zeev Buium, giving the 20-year-old defenseman an eight-year contract worth $75.04 million. Now Öhgren is sitting there as another piece of the Quinn Hughes trade, and his situation is quite different.

He isn't Buium. Nobody is suggesting he is. But that's actually the point.

Öhgren doesn't have to become a star for an early extension to work. If Vancouver believes he is a legitimate middle-six winger who could grow into a second-line player, there is value in buying those years before he proves it.

Can the Canucks count on Öhgren’s potential?

He had only eight goals and 18 points in 51 games with Vancouver last season. That's hardly the résumé of a player who should be handed a huge contract. But the context matters. He had zero points in 18 games with Minnesota before the trade, then came to Vancouver and immediately looked like a different player. He averaged 14:27 per game with the Canucks and played a regular middle-six role.

That doesn't mean he's going to score 30 goals. It means there is something there. And this is where I think the Canucks face an interesting decision. Do they wait for Öhgren to prove everything and then pay him accordingly? Or do they say, “We think we know where this is going” and take a little risk now?

That's essentially what Pittsburgh did with Ville Koivunen, signing him to an eight-year contract at $4 million per season. A comparable doesn't mean the two players are identical. They aren't. But the philosophy is worth noticing.

Sometimes NHL teams have to pay for tomorrow before tomorrow arrives.

There is obviously a danger here. Öhgren could turn into exactly what some people think he will be — a useful 30-to-40-point middle-six winger — and suddenly an eight-year contract looks like a lot of term for a player who never became more than that. That's the gamble.

But there is another gamble that doesn't get talked about as much. Waiting. If Öhgren has a breakout season, the Canucks haven't eliminated the risk. They've simply moved it to a more expensive time.

The Canucks are rebuilding their roster around young players. Buium is now locked in. Marco Rossi is part of the future. Öhgren is part of that Quinn Hughes return too. If the organization really believes in these players, there is something to be said for occasionally getting ahead of the market.

Because sometimes the smartest contract is the one you sign before you have all the answers.