The Flames Are Rebuilding, But They’re Also Starting to Bet

There’s a funny thing about rebuilding an NHL team. Everybody understands the basic idea. Move out the veterans, collect draft picks, find some young players and accept that things are probably going to be a little ugly for a while. Then comes the part nobody talks about quite as much: eventually, you have to start betting on something.

This is where the Calgary Flames are getting interesting.

Calgary has done a pretty good job of clearing out veteran talent and collecting assets. This is supposed to be the long game. The Flames aren’t pretending they’re one or two pieces away from a Stanley Cup. But then they traded two first-round picks for Simon Nemec, a 22-year-old defenceman whose NHL career with New Jersey had been considerably less impressive than his draft pedigree.

That doesn’t necessarily make the trade bad. In fact, there’s an important little detail buried in the deal. The first-round picks Calgary surrendered are protected, which limits the downside. One of those picks comes from Vegas and the other from Colorado, and the protections mean Calgary isn't simply handing New Jersey two shots at the very top of the draft.

Still, the Flames gave up two first-round picks.

And that’s the part worth watching. Rebuilding is usually about accumulating possibilities. You want more picks, more prospects and more chances to be right. Eventually, though, you have to decide that one of those possibilities is worth something more than another lottery ticket.

Nemec is that decision for Calgary. The Flames are basically saying they believe there is still a better NHL player in there than we've seen so far. That's not a crazy belief. He's young, he's talented, and he's a former second-overall pick. But Calgary is also paying for the player they think Nemec can become, not necessarily the player he has been so far.

That’s what makes the Flames’ approach a fascinating rebuild.

The Flames aren’t simply waiting for their young players to mature. They’re beginning to make bets about which young players are worth building around. And that’s usually when a rebuild gets interesting.

The danger, of course, is getting impatient. Rebuilding teams can talk themselves into believing that every young player is the next piece of the puzzle. Suddenly, draft picks become expendable, expectations rise, and the timeline speeds up.

Calgary doesn't look there yet. But the Nemec trade is a little signal that the Flames are moving from collecting pieces to choosing pieces. And that might be the real beginning of the rebuild.