The Maple Leafs Are Flying, but What About Canada's Other

I saw an interesting little chart from HockeyStats.com that measures something called “Goal Differential Above Expected,” and it gives us a different way to look at how the seven Canadian NHL teams are doing. Updated October 25, the chart offers a snapshot of how the seven Canadian NHL teams have performed so far this season.

In plain English, it compares a team’s actual goal differential with what an expected-goals model suggests it should be. A positive number means the team’s goal difference is better than expected; a negative number means it’s worse. It doesn’t tell us which team is best, but it does raise a few questions worth asking.

Toronto is near the top of the entire NHL. Calgary is near the bottom. In between, the other Canadian teams have their own stories. Let’s take a look.

Toronto Maple Leafs: Enjoy the Ride, but Keep an Eye on the Numbers.

Toronto sits second overall at +12.4. That’s a pretty healthy cushion above expectations, and Maple Leafs fans have every reason to enjoy the results. Still, I’d be curious about what’s driving that number. Are the Maple Leafs finishing their chances exceptionally well? Is the goaltending making the difference? Or are they getting a few bounces that might not keep coming?

It could be a combination of all three. The number isn’t a reason to be suspicious of Toronto’s success. It’s a reminder that scoring goals and creating the chances to score them aren’t quite the same thing.

Edmonton Oilers: A Positive Sign, With Questions Attached.

Edmonton is eighth at +5.6. That’s comfortably positive, although it’s a fair distance behind Toronto. The Oilers have enough offensive talent to change a game quickly. But we all know a team can score its way out of trouble one night and run into problems the next. Their 7–2 loss to Toronto showed how quickly things can go sideways.

The interesting question is whether Edmonton can keep turning its chances into goals while doing a better job of preventing the opposition from doing the same.

Winnipeg Jets: Close to What the Model Expects.

Winnipeg comes in tenth at +1.9. There’s no great mystery here. The Jets’ actual goal differential is only modestly ahead of expectations. That’s not necessarily good or bad news. It simply suggests their results are relatively close to what the model expects from the chances they’ve generated and allowed.

For Winnipeg, I’d look at the goaltending, the quality of the chances they’re creating, and whether the team can sustain its results over a larger sample.

Vancouver Canucks: A Small Gap, but Worth Watching.

Vancouver sits 18th at −1.3. That’s a modest negative, not a flashing red light. Still, Canucks fans know how frustrating it can be when a team doesn’t get the results it wants. If Vancouver is creating reasonable chances but not finishing them, there may be room for improvement without a major roster overhaul.

Of course, the other possibility is that the chances aren’t quite as good as they look, or the goaltending isn’t delivering enough saves. The number alone can’t settle that argument.

Montreal Canadiens: A Little Below Expectations.

Montreal ranks 21st at −2.7. That puts the Canadiens on the wrong side of the line, though not dramatically. For fans, the useful question is whether the underlying play offers reasons for optimism. If Montreal is generating quality chances and simply not converting enough, patience might be warranted.

If the team is struggling to create those chances in the first place, that’s a different problem. This statistic gives us a reason to ask the question, not an answer.

Ottawa Senators: Almost Even.

Ottawa sits 16th at −0.6. In other words, the Senators are very close to where the model expects them to be. That number alone doesn’t tell much, and that’s worth remembering. Not every statistic needs to be turned into a crisis or a celebration.

I’d want to look at Ottawa’s five-on-five play, special teams, and goaltending before deciding whether its results are likely to improve or slip.

Calgary Flames: The Biggest Canadian Concern.

Calgary is the outlier. Its −9.4 ranks 31st in the NHL, making it the most concerning Canadian result on this chart. That doesn’t automatically mean the Flames are playing terribly. It does suggest their actual goal differential has fallen well short of what the model expected.

Are they missing too many chances? Are they allowing goals that might ordinarily be stopped? Or is there something about the quality of their chances that the headline number doesn’t reveal? Those are the questions I’d want answered before deciding what Calgary needs to fix. A team can have more going on than one statistic suggests, but a gap this large deserves a closer look.

The Bottom Line: Results Don't Tell the Whole Story.

What I like about this chart is that it gives fans another way to think about their teams. Toronto and Edmonton are well above expectations, Winnipeg is close to the middle, and Calgary has some explaining to do. The other Canadian clubs fall somewhere in between.

But I wouldn’t use this ranking to declare one team a contender and another a disappointment. Expected-goals models have limitations, and finishing skill and goaltending can produce real differences that aren’t simply luck. The next step is to look at the underlying chances, special teams, and goaltending, then see whether the numbers hold up over more games.

For now, Toronto fans can enjoy the ride, Calgary fans have a fair reason to ask questions, and the rest of us can keep watching. Sometimes the most interesting part of hockey isn’t just who won. It’s trying to understand why.