The Senators Are Better Than Their Playoff Exit: Is That

There is something a little strange about the Ottawa Senators heading into this season. On one hand, this is a team that looked much better beneath the surface than its first-round playoff exit suggested. On the other, I'm not sure the offseason did enough to fix the things that ultimately knocked them out.

The Senators were one of the NHL's better possession teams last season. They finished first in expected goals against, ninth in expected goals for, fifth in Corsi percentage and third in Fenwick percentage. Those aren't the numbers of a team that got lucky just to make the playoffs.

The Senators’ problem was goaltending.

Ottawa finished third in goals against above expected, and that tells you something. The team was doing a pretty good job of keeping the puck away from its net. When the puck did get there, things didn't always go so well. And then came the playoff series against Carolina.

Ottawa's power play went 1-for-21, the offence disappeared, and the Senators were swept. That's a pretty ugly ending, but I don't think it means the whole thing was a failure. In fact, I think Ottawa is still an interesting team.

The Senators’ defence is really good.

The part of this roster I really like is the blue line. Jake Sanderson has developed into a legitimate No. 1 defenceman, and he's only 24. Thomas Chabot remains one of the more underrated defencemen in the league when he's healthy. Jordan Spence had a terrific season and gives Ottawa another puck-moving option, while Artem Zub can do the dirty work beside Sanderson.

Then there's Carter Yakemchuk, who could make the bottom pair a lot more interesting. That's a pretty good group. The problem is that the forward group doesn't give me quite the same feeling.

Will losing Brady Tkachuk be a setback?

Losing Brady Tkachuk changes the personality of the team, regardless of what the numbers say. William Eklund is a talented player, but he won’t replace Tkachuk's physical presence. Ottawa also added Andre Burakovsky, but I'm still wondering where the big scoring addition is.

Tim Stützle needs to take another step. Drake Batherson continues to get better, Dylan Cozens gives them another strong centre, and Claude Giroux brings experience and leadership. There are plenty of good pieces. But will there be enough scoring punch?

This is where the questions exist. Linus Ullmark has been an excellent goalie in his career, but injuries have become part of the conversation, and last season wasn't particularly convincing until he found his game late. Ottawa brought in Sam Ersson as insurance, but I'm not sure that solves the problem.

The Senators have a good team. It just isn’t working together yet.

And that's frustrating because the Senators don't need to reinvent this roster. The underlying numbers suggest they're already doing a lot of things right. They need to finish the job. If Stützle takes another offensive step, if the forward group finds enough goals and if Ullmark stays healthy and plays like the goalie Ottawa believes he can be, this could be a very good team. But that's a lot of “ifs.” The Senators were better than their playoff result suggested.

I'm just not convinced they're better enough yet to make the jump from a playoff team to a serious contender.