Three Thoughts About the Marchenko–Knies Trade

Well, that took a long time but also didn’t take long. Matthew Knies has been in the Maple Leafs trade rumour mill since sometime around March. Some days the talk sounded serious; other days it sounded like someone had simply decided to kick the tires. And then, suddenly, Knies was no longer a Toronto Maple Leafs player.

That’s the funny thing about NHL rumours. We spend months wondering whether something might happen, and then when it finally does, the question becomes: Why now?

Thought No. 1: Toronto Really Believes in Marchenko.

The easiest way to understand this trade might be to look at what Toronto got rather than what Toronto gave up. The Maple Leafs clearly believe Kirill Marchenko can become a star. Not just a useful winger. Not just a guy who can score 25 goals. According to the reporting around this deal, they believe Marchenko has 40-goal potential. And that explains a lot.

You don't trade Matthew Knies because you suddenly decide he isn't a good player. You trade him because another organization has a player you believe can ultimately be even better. That is a pretty significant statement from John Chayka and the new Maple Leafs hockey operation.

Thought No. 2: Columbus Had to Be Willing to Make This Deal.

The other part of this deal shouldn't get lost. Columbus didn't have to trade Marchenko. The Blue Jackets had every reason to start the season with him. He's young, talented and inexpensive compared with what a 40-goal scorer normally costs. But Columbus faced contract and salary-cap complications, particularly after the Blue Jackets' other moves. Toronto apparently decided it was willing to take on some of that baggage to get the player it wanted.

That's where the other pieces become interesting. Miles Wood may not play for the Maple Leafs. The injured Elvis Merzlikins also complicates the larger picture. But if taking on another contract or two was the price of getting Marchenko, Toronto apparently said: Fine. We'll pay it.

Thought No. 3: Knies Doesn't Need to Be Seen as a Bad Player.

This is probably the most confusing part. Knies was once considered untouchable. Now he's gone, and it's very easy for fans to start asking what was wrong with him. From everything reported, there wasn’t a major hidden problem. There were injury concerns, sure. But that's different from saying Toronto didn't like the player.

The Maple Leafs apparently looked at the opportunity and decided Marchenko's ceiling was higher. And, to be honest, there is something almost nice about Knies being able to leave this whole rumour circus behind. He doesn't have to spend another season wondering whether every trade story means he's packing his bags.

Pulling the Trade Together for Maple Leafs Fans.

This trade tells us something about the new Maple Leafs. John Chayka isn't sitting around waiting for his roster to sort itself out. He's making decisions. Big ones. The Maple Leafs are betting that Marchenko can become the kind of player who makes giving up Knies understandable. We'll have to watch whether that happens. But that's the bet.

Toronto didn't trade Matthew Knies because it stopped believing in him. It traded him because it believes even more strongly in Kirill Marchenko.