What If Gavin McKenna Doesn't Look Like a Superstar This Season?

The discussion around Gavin McKenna and his first season at Penn State is interesting. Have we been looking at McKenna's season the wrong way? He didn't dominate college hockey the way some people expected, but he also chose to leave junior hockey behind and play against older, bigger and more experienced players. That might turn out to be more important than the number of points he scored.

McKenna's First NHL Season Should Be About Learning.

The temptation with McKenna is obvious. He's the first overall pick, he's been hyped for years, and we've seen enough highlight-reel plays to know he can do things with a hockey puck that most players simply can't. So naturally, everybody is going to watch the scoreboard.

How many goals? How many points? Is he going to win the Calder? Can he score 80? I'm not sure those are the best questions.

McKenna is about to discover something he hasn't really had to deal with before. NHL players are bigger, faster and more experienced than the players he's been playing against. There will be nights when the move that worked in junior no longer works. There will be defencemen who close the gap before he expects it. There will be games when he doesn't have much room to make the plays we've become accustomed to seeing from him. That's not a failure. That's the next part of becoming an NHL player.

Would 60 to 65 points be a reasonable target for McKenna's rookie season? That sounds pretty close to me. If he scores more, great. If he scores fewer but gets noticeably better as the season goes along, that could be just as encouraging.

The Real Test Might Be What's Between His Ears.

That's the part I find most interesting. McKenna has already shown that he can dominate when he's playing against his peers. What we don't yet know is how quickly he can adjust when that no longer works. And that's where his Penn State season may actually help him.

He could have stayed in junior hockey, put up enormous numbers and arrived in Toronto with another year of being the best player on the ice every night. Instead, he took a harder route. He had to adjust. He had to deal with some adversity. He had to learn that being a great young player doesn't mean the game will always come easily. That experience could be incredibly valuable.

Auston Matthews Took a Similar Route Before the NHL.

Matthews did something similar when he played professionally in Switzerland before joining the Maple Leafs. He got an early taste of playing against bigger, older players before making the jump to the NHL. McKenna now gets his own version of that lesson.

So when the season starts, I'm not going to be too worried if he doesn't light up the NHL immediately. I'd rather watch what happens after he struggles. Does he figure out what went wrong? Does he adjust? Does he come back a few weeks later and beat the player who gave him trouble the first time?

McKenna’s success next season will not be based on his point total.

That's where the real development will show up. Maybe McKenna scores 65 points. Maybe he scores 75. Maybe he has a frustrating first couple of months and finishes much stronger. Whatever happens, the Maple Leafs shouldn't be judging this kid simply by his point total.

The real question is how quickly he learns to play the game at the NHL level. And if what's between his ears is as good as his hands and his skating, the next two or three years could be awfully interesting.