What Should Maple Leafs Fans Expect From Auston Matthews

I was reading through some of the comments from Maple Leafs fans about Auston Matthews and what they expect from him next season, and one number really jumped out at me: 45 goals and 45 assists. One reader basically asked, for a $13 million player, shouldn't that be the minimum? You know, I don't think that's an unreasonable question.

Matthews is still one of the best goal scorers in hockey, and when he's healthy and playing at his best, 40 goals shouldn't be some huge accomplishment. In fact, we've seen him score 60. So asking for 45 goals doesn't seem particularly outrageous. The 45 assists are a little more interesting because Matthews has never really been that kind of playmaker. He's a goal scorer first, and his point totals aren't going to look like Connor McDavid's or some of the other elite offensive players who pile up assists.

Another reader suggested looking at it more as an 80-to-95-point expectation. I think that's probably the more reasonable way to look at it.

Matthews had a down season in 2025-26.

Matthews had 53 points in 60 games last season, so if he had stayed healthy, he would have been on a pretty good pace. The problem, of course, is that we've spent the last couple of seasons talking about what Matthews might do if he stays healthy. At some point, staying healthy becomes part of the expectation. And that's probably where I land with Matthews going into next season.

I don't think Maple Leafs fans should sit around saying, “He has to score exactly 45 goals and 45 assists or the season is a failure.” Hockey doesn't work that neatly. But I do think it's fair to expect Matthews to look like Auston Matthews again. That means being a legitimate 40-to-50-goal threat, driving the offence, playing a big role at both ends of the ice and being one of the players who makes the Maple Leafs a difficult team to play against.

Matthews is earning a high salary, which comes with expectations.

The salary is going to be part of every discussion, of course. When you're making $13.25 million, expectations are going to be high. That's just how this works. But the bigger issue isn't really the dollar figure for me. It's whether Matthews looks like the player who earned that kind of contract in the first place.

If he plays 75 or 80 games and finishes somewhere around 45 goals and 85 to 95 points, I suspect most fans will be happy. And if he gets healthy, finds his old scoring touch and starts threatening 50 again?

Well, that's the Auston Matthews everybody in Toronto wants to see.