What the Goalie Numbers Tell Us About Canada's NHL Teams?

Every now and then, a set of hockey numbers gives us something worth thinking about. The latest Goals Saved Above Expected rankings from HockeyStats.com offer an interesting look at how the Canadian NHL teams are doing in goal. And there are some pretty big differences.

The Toronto Maple Leafs have to be pleased with what they're seeing. As of October 11, they're sitting second in the NHL at plus-6.2 goals saved above expected. Ottawa is also looking good at plus-4.1, while Winnipeg sits at plus-1.7.

Good goalie play can cover defensive mistakes for NHL teams.

Those are encouraging early numbers. Goaltending can cover up a few mistakes, keep a team in games when it's not playing particularly well, and give its forwards the confidence to take a few more chances. When your goalies are making saves above what's expected, it can make everybody else's job a little easier.

But then we get to the other end of the list. Edmonton sits at minus-6.4, Vancouver at minus-6.6, and Calgary is last in the league at minus-10.7. Montreal is also in negative territory, at minus-1.8.

That's quite a contrast. Four of Canada's seven teams are below zero, and three of them are near the bottom of the rankings. For Edmonton, Vancouver, and Calgary, those numbers are worth watching closely.

The season is still early, but the Maple Leafs’ goaltending has helped them win.

Of course, let's not get carried away here. It's October, not April. These numbers can change quickly, particularly when teams have played only a handful of games. A difficult night or two can have a big effect on the early rankings.

And Goals Saved Above Expected isn't a complete report card on a goalie. It estimates how many goals a goaltender has prevented or allowed compared with an average performance against the shots faced. It doesn't tell us everything about the defence in front of him, the quality of the chances, or how a team is playing overall.

Still, it's a useful starting point. If a team is struggling, the numbers can help us ask better questions. Are the goalies giving their team a chance? Are defensive breakdowns making their job harder? Or are both things happening at once?

For three Canadian teams, it’s good news.

For Maple Leafs fans, the early returns are encouraging. For fans in Ottawa and Winnipeg, there's reason to be reasonably optimistic, too. Western Canadian teams have a different story to tell. But there's plenty of time to change it.

That's the thing about October hockey. The numbers can tell us where a team stands today. They can't tell us where it'll finish.