What Will the Canadiens Do with Arber Xhekaj Long-Term?

A certain kind of optimism exists only in Montreal. It usually arrives somewhere between the end of the season and the beginning of training camp, when every contract negotiation still seems capable of ending well, and every young player is about to become exactly the player everybody hopes he will be. Arber Xhekaj is a particularly good candidate for that kind of optimism. And with the new seven-year CBA on the horizon, the Canadiens have another reason to think about what he might become.

Do the Canadiens really know what they want to do with Xhekaj?

Xhekaj is big, tough, entertaining and just unpredictable enough to make every shift feel like it might turn into a story. He brings the kind of physical edge teams spend years trying to find, and he has already become the sort of player fans feel protective of. That isn't always the best way to evaluate a defenceman, but it certainly is a pretty good way to build a relationship with a fan base.

The problem, as always, is that affection doesn't count against the salary cap. Xhekaj still has things to prove. His game hasn't reached the point where every decision looks automatic. He can be effective, but he can also get himself into trouble. Montreal will want to know that the physicality comes with enough defensive reliability to justify keeping him in the lineup regularly. Xhekaj, meanwhile, will understandably believe that his value is about more than goals, assists and the occasional fight.

Xhekaj’s up-and-down nature makes things interesting for GM Kent Hughes.

Under the new CBA, an eight-year contract is still the maximum term available when a team signs its own player. That gives Montreal plenty of runway if it decides it wants to keep Xhekaj for the long haul. But it also means the Canadiens have to be pretty confident about the player they're betting on.

Montreal would love to keep Xhekaj around long enough to see what he becomes. Xhekaj would presumably like to be paid for what the Canadiens believe he might become. Those aren't always the same number.

And yet, this is where the Canadiens have occasionally shown a certain creative confidence. They see a player they like, decide he belongs in the organization long term, and then try to sort out the financial details with a mix of optimism, persuasion, and what can only be described as contractual Jedi mind tricks.

Perhaps Xhekaj is the next player to receive that treatment in Montreal.

The ideal outcome for Montreal would be a deal that gives Xhekaj some security while preserving enough flexibility to keep building around him. The ideal outcome for Xhekaj would be to avoid selling himself short simply because the Canadiens are very good at making “long-term opportunity” sound almost as valuable as money.

That's the trick of these negotiations. Everybody leaves the room feeling positive. Then somebody checks the bank account.