I Called the Nurse Trade, But Got a Few Things Wrong

A while back, before any of this actually happened, I floated the idea of Edmonton moving Darnell Nurse to solve their goaltending problem, pitching a swap that would've sent him to Toronto for Anthony Stolarz. The logic was sound at the time: Edmonton had a real crease problem, Nurse's contract was heavy enough that a trade partner made sense, and pairing one team's need with a contender's made sense, too.

What I got right about the Nurse trade, and what I got wrong.

Turns out I had half of it right. Nurse did get moved this summer, and the situation played out almost exactly like I guessed. It turned out to be a heavy contract, a no-trade complication, a player who ultimately needed to expand his list of acceptable destinations before a deal could get done. Nurse himself seemed to confirm that part of the story, saying bluntly, “Sometimes it's just time to go."

But the actual trade looked nothing like my version. Instead of Toronto, it was San Jose that landed him, on the same day the Sharks also signed Jacob Trouba. The Sharks were clearly building out a physical, veteran blue line rather than chasing a goalie swap. And instead of Stolarz coming back to Edmonton, the return was defenseman Shakir Mukhamadullin plus a prospect — no goaltending help at all. Edmonton had to go fill their net separately, and even Edmonton's crease problem got solved through a totally different route than I imagined.

My trade instinct was solid, but I missed what the Oilers asked for.

What's interesting, looking back, is that my instinct about the "why" was solid. Edmonton clearly did need to move Nurse's money, and it did take resolving a no-trade situation to make it happen. I just had the wrong trade partner and completely missed what Edmonton actually needed in return. Real trades rarely follow the clean logic fans like me build around them in the offseason; they tend to follow whatever specific fits and asks are floating around in the room at the moment a deal actually gets made.

Good reminder that speculative trade pieces are more useful as "here's the type of problem a team needs to solve" than "here's exactly how they'll solve it." I got the diagnosis right. The prescription was completely off.