Maple Leafs Star Is Back: Is 50 Goals Within Matthews’ Reach?
Auston Matthews has started the new year with a kind of authority that reminds you just how dangerous he can be when fully healthy. Since the calendar flipped over to 2026, he’s found the net in eight of 13 games, racking up 11 goals over that span. That’s not just volume; it’s efficiency, and it’s put him near the top of the league in goals, even-strength goals, and shots on goal. For a player who struggled out of the gate this season, it’s a sign that the injury hangover is behind him.
Can Matthews Reach 50 Goals?
So, could he reach 50 this year? On the plus side, all the ingredients are there. Matthews is firing from every angle: 64 midrange shots, 58 high-danger attempts, and 29 of his goals coming in those prime scoring areas, according to NHL EDGE stats. That kind of shot quality is elite. He’s comfortable at home too—16 of his 25 goals this season have been at Scotiabank Arena—and he’s consistent with volume, recording at least five shots on goal in seven of the past 13 games.
And let’s not forget his history against certain teams. Matthews has 11 goals in 13 career games versus Vegas, including one already this season, which is no small thing when you’re talking about a team that generally keeps its net well protected.
That Said, There Are Reasons Why He Won’t Hit 50 Goals.
On the flip side, there are reasons for caution. The first half of this season was uneven—he started poorly and had to climb back from an injury layoff. Even if he’s firing now, sustaining that pace over the remaining 55 or so games is a big ask. Defensemen will adjust, coaches will clamp down, and hot streaks inevitably cool. And there’s the sheer math: hitting 50 goals means averaging roughly 0.7 goals per game over a full 82-game season. That’s elite production, the kind that only a handful of players ever reach in a year. It’s possible, yes, but it’s far from guaranteed.
The other factor is context: Matthews isn’t operating in a vacuum. Line chemistry, opponent matchups, and even ice time against top defensive pairings all play a role. He has the skill, the volume, and the shooting profile to reach 50, but it will require health, luck, and consistency all rolling together. That’s a rare alignment.
Matthews Could Hit 50 Goals, But It Won’t Be Easy
Matthews could do it, but it won’t be easy. Fifty goals in a season isn’t just about talent—it’s about navigating the grind, game by game, night after night. For Toronto fans, the hope is that the new-year momentum sticks long enough to see him chase one of the league’s most exclusive benchmarks once again.